基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型     

张强  黎楠  陈文颖  单葆国  张成龙  尹硕 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):54-61

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。  相似文献   

内蒙古东南部暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划——以通辽市为例     

李思慧 《内蒙古气象》2019,(1):23-28

文章选取通辽市各气象站点气象数据、基础地理信息数据、历史灾情数据、第二次土地调查数据及相关社会经济等统计数据,基于自然灾害风险原理,利用数理统计、层次分析法及空间叠加分析等方法,提出了通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,得到通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估空间分布图。结果表明:高风险区主要分布在通辽市北部山区、中东部地区及偏南部地区,包括扎鲁特旗鲁北镇、科尔沁区、科左中旗东南部及库伦旗东南部;而科左后旗大部地区易形成由短时强降水引发的洪涝,为次高风险区;低风险区及次低风险区主要分布在通辽市中部、西南部地区,包括开鲁县、奈曼旗北部、科左中旗西部。  相似文献   

Linking pesticides and human health: A geographic information system (GIS) and Landsat remote sensing method to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Accurate pesticide exposure estimation is integral to epidemiologic studies elucidating the role of pesticides in human health. Humans can be exposed to pesticides via residential proximity to agricultural pesticide applications (drift). We present an improved geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing method, the Landsat method, to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure through matching pesticide applications to crops classified from temporally concurrent Landsat satellite remote sensing images in California. The image classification method utilizes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in a combined maximum likelihood classification and per-field (using segments) approach. Pesticide exposure is estimated according to pesticide-treated crop fields intersecting 500 m buffers around geocoded locations (e.g., residences) in a GIS. Study results demonstrate that the Landsat method can improve GIS-based pesticide exposure estimation by matching more pesticide applications to crops (especially temporary crops) classified using temporally concurrent Landsat images compared to the standard method that relies on infrequently updated land use survey (LUS) crop data. The Landsat method can be used in epidemiologic studies to reconstruct past individual-level exposure to specific pesticides according to where individuals are located.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the relative roles of global versus local sedimentary controls on Middle to Late Pleistocene formation of continental margin strata,Canterbury Basin,New Zealand          下载免费PDF全文

Tania Villaseñor  John M. Jaeger  Kathleen M. Marsaglia  Greg H. Browne 《Sedimentology》2015,62(4):1118-1148

Determining the relative influence of eustasy versus local sedimentary processes on strata formation is a fundamental challenge in the study of continental margin stratigraphy. In this paper, the relative contribution of these factors on continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene is evaluated using samples from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 317. Core‐logging, biostratigraphy and quantitative X‐ray diffraction mineralogy are used to delineate continental shelf sedimentary systems. Major lithological unconformities bound stratigraphic sequences that contain recurring compositional patterns and that resemble other examples of Middle to Upper Pleistocene sequences. However, a preliminary chronology suggests that sequence boundary formation cannot be linked ‘one to one’ with eustatic cycles and therefore these sequences can contain multiple ca 100 ka eustatic cycles. Smaller amplitude, higher frequency transitions in sediment composition are interpreted as stratigraphic sequences driven by more rapid perturbations in the interplay of accommodation and sediment supply; their stratigraphy is variable in time and across the shelf, suggesting a strong influence of local sedimentary forcing in their formation. Changes in sediment composition after the Middle Pleistocene Transition indicate that sediment transfer from onshore sources in the glaciated Southern Alps to the middle‐shelf occurred over a single 100 ka glacio‐eustatic cycle, with an additional 100 ka lag before the mineralogical signal was preserved on the outer‐shelf. This phenomenon is coincident with rapid shelf progradation in this basin, suggesting a causal relation between across‐shelf sediment transport and margin progradation. This is one of very few studies that provide insights at the core scale into the processes driving continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. This work shows that compositional changes in mud‐dominated successions can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation and the identification of high‐frequency sequences, which may not be possible using a conventional stratigraphic approach.  相似文献   

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.  相似文献   

新疆小热泉子铜矿物探异常特征及找矿效果     

闻晓慧  姚敬金  张素兰  林天亮  鲁瑞君  周志超 《新疆地质》2011,29(1):61-64

通过在小热泉子矿床开展高精度重力、激发极化面积性测量和高密度相位激电测深,对其物探异常特征进行分析解释,推断异常性质.经钻探工程验证,发现矿体与中高剩余重力、高极化率、中低电阻和高(负值)视相位异常对应较好.  相似文献   

Key challenges for maritime governance in West Africa: Fishery-based lessons from Guinea and Mauritania     

B. Trouillet  T. Guineberteau  M. Bernardon  S. Le Roux 《Marine Policy》2011

Maritime governance stakes are important in West Africa, if only due to the dominant role of fisheries, which coastal populations mainly depend on. In this context, with reference to the fishery sector mostly studied in two countries (Guinea and Mauritania), this paper aims to identify and synthesize the challenges to be met towards developing the governance of marine spaces. To this end, the analysis is based on field knowledge, which provides input into a grid set according to the various integration levels of the concept of ICZM. This paper thus reports the major methodological obstacles to be overcome, commensurate to the stakes insofar as marine policies can and must contribute to the economic and social development of this region.  相似文献   

Feeding strategies of deep-sea sub-Arctic macrofauna of the Faroe-Shetland Channel: Combining natural stable isotopes and enrichment techniques     

E. Gontikaki  D.J. MayorB.E. Narayanaswamy  U. Witte 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(2):160-172

The response of a sub-arctic, deep-sea macrofaunal community to a simulated food sedimentation event was studied by means of a stable isotope “pulse-chase” experiment. A food pulse was simulated by adding 500 mg C m⁻² of ¹³C-labelled diatoms, Chaetoceros radicans, to sediment cores retrieved from 1080 m in the Faroe-Shetland Channel. Carbon uptake by specific macrofaunal groups was quantified after 3 and 6 days of incubation. The carbon uptake of the dominant taxon (Polychaeta) was quantified at the genus-, and where possible, species-level, representing a data resolution that is rare in deep-sea tracer studies. The macrofaunal community reacted rapidly to the diatom addition, with 47% and 70% of the animals illustrating ¹³C-enrichment after 3 and 6 days, respectively. Approximately 95% of C uptake was located in the upper 2 cm due to the particularly shallow vertical distribution of the macrofaunal community and the nonexistent tracer subduction by burrowing species. Polychaetes of the families Ampharetidae and Cirratulidae were among the most heavily labelled with above background enrichment reaching 1300‰. Approximately 0.8 and 2.0 mg C m⁻² were processed by the macrofauna after 3 and 6 days, representing 0.2% and 0.4% of the added carbon, respectively. It was not possible to differentiate sub-surface deposit-feeding polychaetes from predator/scavenger- and omnivorous polychaetes using their natural ??¹⁵N signatures. However, the combination of natural abundance ??¹⁵N data and ¹³C-labelling experiments proved to be useful for elucidating trophic relations in deep-sea food webs. This study confirms that macrofauna play an active role in the short-term carbon cycling at bathyal depths even at sub-zero temperatures and highlights the need for detailed knowledge of the community structure in understanding carbon processing patterns and early diagenesis of organic matter in marine sediments.  相似文献   

用沿岸上升流指数分析中国东南沿岸风生上升流的特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

苗馨  胡建宇 《海洋通报》2011,30(3):258-265

对1968年1月到2007年12月中国东南沿海(17°N～30°N,109°E～123°E)上升流指数月平均数据进行分析,结论如下:(1)风生沿岸上升流主要在4-8月间发生于海南岛东部、雷州半岛东部、汕头以北至浙江沿岸.(2)风生沿岸上升流的强度具有时空分布变化特征,其中海南岛东部沿岸上升流最强,浙江沿岸其次;整个中国...  相似文献   

多层次格网模型的近邻指数聚类生态区划算法与实验——以新疆北部地区区划为例     

袁烨城  周成虎  覃彪  欧阳 《地球信息科学学报》2011,13(1):1-11

在综合考虑气候、植被、地貌等凶素的基础上,提出一种基于多层次格网模型的最近邻指数-模糊聚类生态区域划分算法(Nearest Neighbor Index Fuzzy clustering,NNI-FIC).该算法采用"自下而上"的方式,首先,利用离散格网单元之间的严格相似性形成区划的核心分区;然后,通过最近邻指数统计分...  相似文献